Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Is Up 13.5% After AI-Focused Outlook Trumps Weak Profit - Has The Bull Case Changed?
Simply Wall St
Thu, December 11, 2025 at 4:10 PM EST
3 min read
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Hewlett Packard Enterprise recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales rising to US$9,679 million while net income fell sharply to US$175 million, alongside a maintained dividend and raised fiscal 2026 earnings guidance.
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At the same time, HPE is leaning heavily into AI, hybrid cloud, and advanced networking through GreenLake, Juniper integration, and large AI infrastructure wins such as the US$931 million DISA contract.
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We’ll now examine how HPE’s raised earnings outlook, underpinned by expanding AI and networking offerings, may reshape its investment narrative.
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Hewlett Packard Enterprise Investment Narrative Recap
To own HPE, you need to believe its pivot toward AI infrastructure, hybrid cloud and networking can offset pressure on legacy hardware and restore profitability. The latest quarter underscores that tension, with strong sales but sharply lower net income, while the raised 2026 earnings guidance and maintained dividend highlight management’s focus on near term execution. The biggest near term catalyst is delivery against that upgraded profit outlook, while the key risk remains whether Juniper’s integration and higher debt actually translate into sustainable margin expansion.
The expanded HPE GreenLake cloud portfolio, including AI focused offerings and financing support, ties directly into that earnings story by pushing more of HPE’s business toward recurring, software rich services rather than one off hardware sales. If GreenLake and AI infrastructure deals like the US$931 million DISA contract scale as planned, they could help reduce HPE’s exposure to slower growth, lower margin server segments and support the profitability targets now embedded in its 2026 guidance.
Yet behind the upbeat 2026 guidance, investors should be aware of the execution risk around integrating Juniper, especially if...
Read the full narrative on Hewlett Packard Enterprise (it's free!)
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's narrative projects $44.4 billion revenue and $2.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 10.3% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $1.6 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.
Uncover how Hewlett Packard Enterprise's forecasts yield a $26.28 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$17.90 to US$36.64, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those against HPE’s AI and hybrid cloud ambitions, pay close attention to how much of its profit recovery story depends on integrating Juniper and lifting margins in higher value networking.
Story Continues
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Hewlett Packard Enterprise - why the stock might be worth 29% less than the current price!
Build Your Own Hewlett Packard Enterprise Narrative
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
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A great starting point for your Hewlett Packard Enterprise research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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Our free Hewlett Packard Enterprise research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hewlett Packard Enterprise's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include HPE.
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